2022 Automotive Industry Trends and Predictions

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2022 Automotive Industry Trends and Predictions

Michael Smyth • Feb 27, 2022

...each new year will bring new challenges.

I think we’re all curious about what this new year will bring us professionally and personally. The pandemic continues to affect every aspect of our lives through supply chain issues, workforce shortages, and justified reluctance to have contact with anyone outside of our immediate families. Will things improve in 2022? Predictions in this uncertain era are impossible to quantify, but we are optimistic in our ability to work inside the parameters forced upon us. However, we can be confident in one thing:the automotive industry will continue to grow in size and complexity, and that each new year will bring new challenges. Predicted trends based on this optimism are the root of the topics presented below.

Self-Driving Vehicles:

Also known as autonomous vehicles, research and implementation on self-driving cars is probably the fastest-growing advanced vehicle technology. Driven by safety and consumer convenience, different levels of autonomous capabilities appear on almost all vehicles, even base units. Beyond the safety and ease-of-use factor, it is projected that driving assist systems can eventually be used as driverless delivery, taxi, and freight services.

A related subset of autonomous vehicles is the ADAS, or “Advanced Driving Support Systems,” which we addressed in an ATech article late last year. We won’t rehash that article, but it is safe to say ADAS repair will continue to be a growing concern.

Connected Vehicle Technologies:

Wirelessly connecting cars and trucks looks to be the cornerstone of existing and planned communication and networking between vehicles. Systems such as safety, mobility, and weather data can all be shared to benefit all. The communication systems can vary based on application, such as communication through cellular data, vehicle-to-vehicle, proprietary networks, and satellite. Drivers can access weather, traffic, parking availability, and accidents.

The future of vehicle connectivity could bring some exciting “bleeding edge” capabilities to our transportation network with information on road closures, shared adaptive cruise capabilities for fleet vehicles, and even connection with digital assistant devices in your home so that you have a hot dinner waiting for you upon your arrival.

Oh, did I forget to mention entertainment? Organizations such as Android Auto, Apple Car Play, and companies new to the market such as Roku are poised to take advantage of a direct data connection to vehicles.

Aging Vehicles:

Consumers hold on to their vehicles longer and build up higher miles. It used to be a standard that once a car or truck reached the 100,000-mile mark, it was nearing the end of its useful and economically justified lifecycle. Now many vehicles are reaching 250,000 or higher miles without significant component failures. My wife’s 2015 Prius Plug-in has had a hard life. Between hitting two separate deer, a collision with a foreign exchange student that ignored a red light, and an attempted break-in that destroyed the driver’s door and window, the vehicle has been trouble-free. With 197,000 miles on the odometer, we have only replaced the front struts, brakes, and tires.

The longevity of vehicles, along with the shortage of new and quality used vehicles available for resale, are pushing people to keep their cars longer. This creates a secondary challenge for the automotive repair technician, as they must be constantly resourceful when sourcing parts. Manufacturers are discontinuing parts more rapidly, and supply chain issues have affected availability from foreign secondary parts manufacturers, forcing us to look at salvage and used parts outlets for components. My local salvage yard has just purchased an extensive tract of land to expand his business, as he is much more reluctant to crush a vehicle now that the request for older parts has increased.

Online Vehicle Sales:

The pandemic and our somewhat reluctance to physically interact with others have to lead a significant push on online sales, and vehicle and vehicle parts are no exception. Virtual vehicle tours, consumer-friendly “try and buy” return policies, and conventional dealerships offering hybrid sales opportunities are changing how we purchase new and used vehicles.

As for parts sales, my local FLAPS, “Friendly Local Automotive Parts Sales, ” tell me that they see a massive spike in online sales once they offer free, contactless pickup options to their customers. Surprisingly, he said that his commercial clients are also taking advantage of this, requesting that parts be dropped off without physical contact.

Labor Shortage:

Hiring and retaining quality techs is becoming a significant challenge. New vehicle technology coupled with a lack of trained labor is slowly strangling the diagnostic and repair industry. With a finite pool of talent, this put challenges on the shop owner to acquire and keep as many of those in this pool as possible. So how to do it and keep them once they’re on board? First of all, offer a fair wage. Money isn’t the only deciding factor in keeping your staff, but it helps. You should also factor in the cost of hiring and training new staff when determining what salary you are willing and can afford to offer. Other factors also play a role, such as the physical quality of your facility, the culture the management staff encourages, and the equipment and tools your shop possesses.

Electric Vehicles:

If anyone thought that the pandemic would slow down electric vehicle development and sales, I think it is safe to say this isn’t happening. In a recent article on mikealbert.com, the following facts were listed:

Volkswagen says almost 100% of its new vehicles in major markets should be zero-emission by 2040.
General Motors says it will make only electric vehicles by 2035.
EV sales will surpass internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle sales by 2030.

When consumers who were open to the purchase or lease of an electric vehicle were asked what their major concerns were, these are their responses:

Vehicle cost
Vehicle range
Availability of a charging station
Length of time to charge

With just a little “Googling,” we can see that all of these concerns are being addressed. For example, President Biden’s infrastructure bill projected a $15 billion budget for nationwide charging stations to support EV vehicle implementation. The range is also becoming less of an issue, as many vehicles are now advertising over 400 miles of EV mileage from one charge. In addition, subsidies are in place to support the purchase of EVs, and the new fast-charging stations are keeping charge times much shorter than even a year ago.

So why the long-winded article? Opportunity. Whether you’re a technician at an OE facility, independent shop, or maintain fleet vehicles, offering service on emerging technology systems is an opportunity for you to provide diagnostic and repair on systems your competitor doesn’t provide. The investment in the training and tools to support this is a safe bet, as analysts predict that the above-listed systems are here to stay and will only grow in popularity.

- Micheal Smyth

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Engines of the Future are Already Here!

By Jeff Bogue • 12 Dec, 2023

I have been dreaming about and studying engines and engine performance of cars, trucks, and motorcycles for the better part of 45 years. It’s a hobby. It keeps me busy on cold winter evenings. It’s something that has become a large part of my life and, like playing with dogs, is something I love to do. I have written about engines and the engineering that is involved in them for the last 15 years, and I have always been forward-thinking. When a new engine is being lauded by the manufacturers as the next big thing, I read all about it and report those findings here. In the past, I have written about every one of the engines in this article at one time or another, and each one was glowingly revealed by the engineers with the statement “We can expect these engines in our cars in the next few years”. Well, a few years have passed and now most of these engines ARE in our cars and trucks and should be reaching repair shops and dealerships now. We just haven’t heard that much about them because people, as a general rule, really don’t care that much about which engine is in their car if it gets good gas mileage, is reasonably reliable, and has a little umph to get on the highway. Well, that is not us. We care. We study it. It’s what we do and why you are where you are reading this article. Without further ado, let us look at the “Engines of the Future” that you can buy (and service) now.